The source code for this blog is available on GitHub.

Chainring Software.

My implementation of a returns based trading strategy around earnings announcements

Cover Image for My implementation of a returns based trading strategy around earnings announcements
Dave Petrizze
Dave Petrizze

The idea is rather simple. Look at the Buy and Hold Abnormal Returns (BHAR) of a given stock relative to the index of its same size-decile peers one day before the earnings announcement. When the BHAR is &lt/&gt some threshold, open a long/short positition in that stock. Then hold that position until after the earnings announcement. The idea is that on average, stocks that are performing abnormally relative to their same size-decile peers will correct once information about the stock is revealed in the earnings announcement. Thus bringing the price back into line with its peers. This happens because a stock may become over or under valued based on fear and greed sentiment.

I wrote code to capture the historical stock prices of assets traded on the NYSE and NASDAQ. Then for each stock in the portfolio (~4000 stocks), we look at their earnings dates and calculate the BHAR a day before the earnings announcement.

Unfortunately, the variability in over 1 year's back calculations are (for me) too volatile to want to engage in the trading. While the strategy can make money, it also can lose money and the loses sometimes wipe out all of the gains. Currently, looking at 2024, the strategy earns barely .5%, and is highly a function of the values chosen for the threshold to entry. Sometimes you win big, on the order of 50%, other times you lose the same. For the moment, at the limit, it seems the strategy wins just as much as it loses, which in my opinion is no different that simply betting on all earnings announcements and hoping for the best.

I am still looking for ways to improve the results, for example, by examining other data in conjunction with the BHAR, such as VIX, SPY, and some technical relationships such as simple moving averages. So far nothing has really been promising. If the algorithm could improve to the 2-3% level, then I think it is worth taking on the risk inherent in the strategy.

Position Finder

Here is a table showing the BHAR for the next trading day earnings.

symbolnamepurchase datewhendecilebharpositionpricesma(10)sma(23)MACDSignalAdxStdDev10ZScorePeriodsrss
AXONAxon Enterprise2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market10.00-30.00%long499.73621.85634.60-16.354.7125.0073.88-1.65200.000.22
DNAGinkgo Bioworks Holdings2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market5.00-23.38%long10.4612.5713.030.050.5327.541.30-1.62200.000.16
CAVACava Group2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market9.00-17.20%long104.22124.68129.57-3.130.6621.9411.12-1.84200.000.06
RCUSArcus Biosciences2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.00-17.15%long10.1611.6312.51-0.90-0.7435.150.91-1.62200.000.12
STRLSterling Infrastructure2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market8.00-13.95%long108.65130.50144.33-12.98-10.5931.7312.03-1.82200.000.03
LCIDLucid Gr2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market9.00-12.73%long2.783.092.920.070.0722.360.28-1.12200.000.02
PRCHPorch Group2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market5.00-12.69%long3.934.704.54-0.020.0216.460.36-2.12200.000.03
SEZLSezzle2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market7.00-12.10%long284.22308.07268.1713.9910.9123.0627.77-0.86200.000.04
SUPNSupernus Pharmaceuticals2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market7.00-12.10%long32.6836.7837.91-0.92-0.1326.332.79-1.47200.000.06
EHTHeHealth2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market4.00-9.38%long9.4210.2510.090.270.3832.790.56-1.48200.000.01
QUIKQuickLogic2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market3.00-9.26%long6.937.547.96-0.34-0.3414.110.55-1.12200.000.02
LOWLowe's Companies2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market10.00-8.97%long237.08248.82255.19-4.06-2.0422.336.29-1.87200.000.01
CZRCaesars Entertainment2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market9.00-8.59%long35.0437.0936.180.540.6917.361.78-1.15200.000.02
KEYSKeysight Techs2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market10.00-8.57%long173.47179.80176.182.923.4620.474.15-1.53200.000.01
CTRICenturi Holdings2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.00-8.02%long18.1520.2921.39-0.60-0.1618.041.27-1.68200.000.02
NRGNRG Energy2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market10.00-7.00%long103.43107.11105.401.852.0113.063.35-1.10200.000.01
FLYWFlywire2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market7.00-6.83%long17.3319.3419.43-0.40-0.1215.781.13-1.77200.000.01
INTUIntuit2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market10.00-6.55%long567.24579.45589.50-11.53-10.9828.767.35-1.66200.000.01
SPXCSPX Techs2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market8.00-6.37%long133.56147.97148.74-1.97-0.5016.296.10-2.36200.000.00
AAPAdvance Auto Parts2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.00-6.23%long42.8145.5747.16-0.660.0121.071.91-1.44200.000.02
HYLNHyliion Holdings2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market4.00-6.21%long1.862.032.19-0.14-0.1327.270.09-1.93200.000.01
CPNGCoupang2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market10.00-5.93%long24.6324.7223.860.570.4919.230.69-0.13200.000.00
ONTFON242/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market4.00-5.81%long6.096.616.73-0.080.0218.840.31-1.71200.000.01
SPTSprout Social2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market7.00-5.48%long27.9330.7732.11-0.94-0.3828.191.91-1.48200.000.01
TJXTJX Companies2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market10.00-5.43%long121.47123.71124.13-0.130.3713.351.43-1.57200.000.00
BASECouchbase2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.00-5.15%long16.5518.4218.070.240.4626.560.71-2.65200.000.00
SLNGStabilis Solutions2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market3.00-5.14%long6.827.407.120.210.2930.150.33-1.78196.000.01
AVDXAvidXchange Holdings2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.00-4.91%long9.129.7710.23-0.28-0.1528.420.35-1.87200.000.01
EMEEMCOR Group2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market9.00-4.90%long391.43428.93450.96-17.53-12.7328.0919.57-1.92200.000.00
SESSES AI2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market4.00-4.72%long0.911.011.07-0.04-0.0118.740.07-1.38200.000.01
ZETAZeta Global Holdings2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market8.00-3.93%long21.6322.3020.350.850.7421.211.27-0.53200.000.01
ZIPZipRecruiter2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market5.00-3.28%long6.977.547.39-0.030.0520.500.37-1.56200.000.00
CWHCamping World Holdings2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.00-3.14%long20.8622.3122.62-0.34-0.0412.981.14-1.28200.000.01
ARHSArhaus2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.00-3.12%long11.6612.3412.290.210.4026.410.47-1.44200.000.01
OLOOlo2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.00-2.71%long6.677.107.24-0.14-0.0920.410.19-2.27200.000.00
ASTEAstec Industries2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market6.00-2.61%long30.4032.7133.72-0.67-0.3816.231.06-2.17200.000.00
MASIMasimo2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market9.00-2.56%long170.72177.34175.920.791.8416.163.72-1.78200.000.00
FSSFederal Signal2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market8.00-2.53%long90.7896.6997.56-0.410.3114.892.46-2.40200.000.00
GERNGeron2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.00-2.30%long2.392.652.82-0.18-0.1639.680.14-1.93200.000.00
EXLSExlService Holdings2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market9.00-2.06%long48.2150.5350.450.480.9930.041.26-1.84200.000.00
VRSKVerisk Analytics2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market10.00-1.92%long297.01294.43289.853.733.7019.921.331.95200.000.00
ZIZoomInfo Technologies2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market8.00-1.88%long9.6410.1110.17-0.11-0.0511.660.27-1.72200.000.00
WKWorkiva2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market8.00-1.71%long84.0189.5195.27-5.03-3.9133.613.95-1.39200.000.00
WDAYWorkday2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market10.00-1.67%long261.81261.56263.050.130.8913.533.780.07200.000.00
CCCSCCC Intelligent Solutions2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market9.00-1.56%long10.2310.6910.97-0.25-0.2021.020.22-2.10200.000.00
INGNInogen2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market4.00-1.46%long9.8410.3711.01-0.110.0820.000.30-1.76200.000.00
DYDycom Industries2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market8.00-1.40%long168.60181.41185.64-3.25-0.4518.5610.19-1.26200.000.00
BWINThe Baldwin Insurance2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market7.00-1.39%long39.3040.6140.99-0.180.0412.980.88-1.48191.000.00
COCOVita Coco2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.00-1.21%long37.7539.0538.230.540.7524.390.99-1.31200.000.00
MDGLMadrigal Pharmaceuticals2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market9.00-1.18%long322.14339.13333.635.536.8821.718.24-2.06200.000.00
OUTOutfront Media2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market7.00-1.11%long18.2218.7218.630.050.1414.390.43-1.16200.000.00
FSLRFirst Solar2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market9.00-1.01%long152.91160.10164.02-5.71-5.6625.183.39-2.12200.000.00
TTITetra Technologies2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market5.00-0.94%long4.144.394.380.030.0716.100.11-2.23200.000.00
GOGrocery Outlet Holding2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market7.00-0.94%long15.8016.4516.48-0.17-0.0511.250.60-1.08200.000.00
ODPODP2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market5.00-0.93%long18.8619.4221.11-1.32-1.1420.750.84-0.67200.000.01
EYENational Vision Holdings2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market6.00-0.90%long11.6612.0111.670.230.2422.080.31-1.13200.000.00
JACKJack In The Box2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.00-0.83%long36.7839.0639.69-0.62-0.4310.130.93-2.45200.000.00
MMSIMerit Medical Systems2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market8.00-0.30%long103.51107.08107.350.521.4322.462.22-1.61200.000.00
CPSSConsumer Pf Servs2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market4.00-0.25%long10.2611.0211.39-0.12-0.0124.000.38-2.03200.000.01
RVLVRevolve Gr2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market7.00-0.06%long29.7330.3030.70-0.52-0.4318.520.88-0.65200.000.00
AVNSAvanos Medical2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market5.00-0.06%long15.6316.0716.47-0.27-0.1418.870.53-0.82200.000.01
AMCAMC Enter Hldgs2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.00-0.06%long3.363.463.32-0.04-0.0921.030.14-0.68200.000.00
UTHRUnited Therapeutics2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market9.00-0.06%long358.21365.10362.840.850.3515.549.91-0.70200.000.00
COMMCommScope Hldg Co2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market6.00-0.02%long4.815.135.13-0.04-0.0412.340.18-1.76200.000.01
DTMDT Midstream2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market9.000.12%short96.99100.08101.95-1.29-0.9023.011.53-2.02200.000.00
CARTMaplebear2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market9.000.12%short49.3650.9048.961.551.5720.411.25-1.23200.000.01
PRCTPROCEPT BioRobotics2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market8.000.34%short65.1566.5869.52-3.58-3.5324.032.04-0.70200.000.00
RYTMRhythm Pharmaceuticals2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market8.000.40%short54.6657.2058.01-0.300.1112.081.05-2.40200.000.00
LMNDLemonade2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market7.000.41%short34.7035.4634.410.03-0.0513.212.01-0.38200.000.01
PCVXVaxcyte2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market9.000.52%short81.6883.4186.50-1.58-0.9520.321.79-0.96200.000.00
CBZCBIZ2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market8.000.76%short84.0286.5586.210.451.0324.111.48-1.71200.000.00
JBIJanus Intl Gr2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market6.000.87%short8.008.148.130.070.1216.720.17-0.85200.000.00
MRVIMaravai LifeSciences2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market5.001.09%short4.014.144.71-0.33-0.3021.350.11-1.19200.000.00
HYHyster Yale2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.001.11%short50.6152.6152.94-0.14-0.0214.781.06-1.89200.000.00
ARQTArcutis Biotherapeutics2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market7.001.29%short12.3912.5612.98-0.18-0.2321.000.63-0.27200.000.01
WBTNWebtoon Entertainment2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.001.35%short10.2310.6711.96-0.68-0.5425.190.20-2.20165.000.00
SCKTSocket Mobile2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market1.001.46%short1.261.301.40-0.05-0.0422.620.05-0.67200.000.01
RRCRange Resources2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market9.001.52%short37.9939.0238.600.320.4223.130.62-1.67200.000.00
SHOOSteven Madden2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.001.57%short38.5338.7439.46-0.70-0.8216.280.75-0.27200.000.00
HURNHuron Consulting Gr2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market7.001.82%short125.30128.06127.470.460.8821.292.39-1.16200.000.00
MATXMatson2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market8.001.93%short143.31143.25140.191.120.5920.782.590.03200.000.00
BSYBentley Systems2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market9.001.97%short46.6346.6946.51-0.03-0.0611.000.60-0.09200.000.00
IMXIIntL Money Express2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market5.002.08%short17.7818.2618.74-0.53-0.5233.320.24-2.04200.000.00
PLABPhotronics2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market6.002.15%short21.5722.3222.66-0.45-0.4213.120.35-2.11200.000.00
BCOBrink's2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market8.002.46%short92.1893.0193.03-0.11-0.049.460.83-1.00200.000.00
PRPermian Resources2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market9.002.51%short14.0614.4314.69-0.19-0.1423.520.34-1.07200.000.00
UVEUniversal Insurance Hldgs2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market5.002.67%short19.8220.0919.85-0.00-0.0216.380.28-0.96200.000.00
LNTHLantheus Holdings2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market8.002.74%short78.9581.5788.04-3.54-2.7030.532.32-1.13200.000.00
GICGlobal Industrial2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.003.03%short23.7724.1224.54-0.28-0.3122.640.33-1.05200.000.00
ACMRACM Research2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.003.12%short23.4924.3221.691.991.8541.631.43-0.58200.000.05
GPORGulfport Energy2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market8.003.16%short182.30185.60184.910.820.8915.133.70-0.89200.000.01
BLZEBackblaze2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market5.003.27%short7.087.376.750.270.2424.840.14-2.04200.000.01
BATRAAtlanta Braves Holdings2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.003.36%short43.3843.7443.120.610.7133.700.28-1.25200.000.00
BATRKLiberty Braves Group2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.003.36%short39.5739.9139.360.410.4427.840.28-1.22200.000.00
SWXSouthwest Gas Hldgs2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market8.003.52%short77.1777.3475.721.221.2726.190.50-0.34200.000.00
ENOVEnovis2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.003.52%short43.5343.8945.45-0.65-0.4420.840.50-0.72200.000.00
RXSTRxSight2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.003.55%short29.2930.8632.03-1.15-0.9834.191.04-1.51200.000.01
CHRDChord Energy2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market9.003.64%short111.33112.35113.65-1.71-2.0423.391.88-0.54200.000.01
PARRPar Pacific Hldgs2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.003.65%short15.5816.1216.75-0.38-0.2414.300.67-0.81200.000.00
XPELXPEL2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market6.003.85%short41.0241.8042.15-0.000.0710.930.55-1.41200.000.01
RCKYRocky Brands2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market4.003.91%short23.3023.6524.43-0.130.0319.510.30-1.16200.000.00
ZVIAZevia2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market4.003.98%short3.303.433.77-0.15-0.1127.030.12-1.07200.000.02
MGPIMGP Ingredients2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market6.004.33%short32.8332.5734.05-1.44-1.6333.480.400.64200.000.00
DAWNDay One Biopharmaceutical2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.004.64%short12.1812.0912.32-0.10-0.137.480.200.44200.000.01
SAMBoston Beer Co2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market7.005.08%short233.83230.01240.06-10.55-11.5839.673.541.08200.000.00
SAFTSafety Insurance Group2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.005.75%short78.3277.9278.25-0.60-0.6925.820.500.80200.000.01
SKWDSkyward Specialty2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market7.005.86%short50.6249.4546.900.960.6627.130.741.57200.000.00
OPCHOption Care Health2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market8.005.95%short32.0831.8931.251.191.3550.630.340.55200.000.01
UWMCUWM Hldgs2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market6.006.08%short6.446.406.260.120.1014.270.140.30200.000.01
IVACIntevac2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market3.006.49%short4.033.863.630.170.1242.610.280.62200.000.01
LNWLight & Wonder2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market9.007.00%short100.6399.6392.963.752.6031.783.820.26200.000.03
ESCAEscalade2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market4.007.25%short15.2715.2715.240.100.099.680.290.02200.000.01
TSHATaysha Gene Therapies2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market4.007.28%short1.651.651.60-0.03-0.0414.270.080.05200.000.01
OSUROraSure Technologies2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market4.007.58%short3.993.883.920.020.0211.800.071.47200.000.01
IPARInter Parfums2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market8.007.80%short137.83135.82138.49-0.290.1615.372.160.93200.000.01
APGAPi Gr2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market9.007.84%short39.2138.7338.280.570.4117.181.220.39200.000.03
ICCCImmuCell2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market2.007.97%short5.025.085.19-0.020.0222.090.12-0.49200.000.01
BGFVBig 5 Sporting Goods2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market2.008.22%short1.441.451.52-0.06-0.0721.600.03-0.60200.000.02
AVAAvista2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.008.37%short38.2537.3236.840.320.1818.020.462.05200.000.01
USNAUsana Health Sciences2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market5.008.77%short32.6931.4932.39-0.69-0.9220.650.601.99200.000.01
PRKSUnited Parks & Resorts2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.0010.26%short55.6953.0852.77-0.01-0.3912.801.341.94200.000.02
BLMNBloomin Brands2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market6.0010.34%short11.6611.7612.17-0.14-0.1216.520.36-0.28200.000.05
SSTISoundThinking2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market4.0010.78%short14.2014.2113.820.400.3320.490.72-0.01200.000.08
YOUClear Secure2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMBefore Market7.0011.39%short24.1323.2023.47-0.58-0.7532.250.701.33200.000.02
AGLAgilon Health2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market6.0011.73%short3.643.503.480.190.2128.930.101.40200.000.03
BGSB&G Foods2/25/2025 12:00:00?AMAfter Market5.0017.38%short6.746.186.31-0.06-0.1620.660.331.71200.000.06